Shortly after it was announced that the Indianapolis Colts will sign free agent wide receiver Devin Funchess to a one-year deal worth $10M Youth Adam Vinatieri Jersey
, with another $3M in incentives, Stephen Holder shared..."Shortly after it was announced that the Indianapolis Colts will sign free agent wide receiver Devin Funchess to a one-year deal worth $10M, with another $3M in incentives, Stephen Holder shared that Chris Ballard will be tendering restricted free agent wide receiver Chester Rogers. This move not only brings a familiar face back to catch passes from Andrew Luck, it also means Indianapolis keeps its punt returner on the roster.In three seasons, Rogers has tallied 95 receptions for 1,042 yards and 3 touchdowns. While he was not heavily used as a rookie in 2016, Rogers showed signs of building trust with Luck and had a knack for turning short passes into bigger gains. That same season, Rogers had a career best 14.4 yards per reception on 19 catches. In 2018, his second season with Luck, Rogers caught 53 passes and was used heavily on wide receiver screen plays. This new role resulted in a very short 9.2 yard average per reception. As a punt returner, Rogers has fielded 46 punts and averaged 9.0 yards per return over three seasons. He has only fumbled twice. He has had at least two would-be touchdowns called back due to penalties. Last season Indianapolis Colts Denzelle Good Jersey
, his average of 9.4 yards per return would rank him 11th in the NFL. There was a time that Chester Rogers took the Colts fan base by storm. As an undrafted free agent, he not only made the team but never displayed fear in the face of the big lights or looked out of place on the big stage of the NFL. Perhaps he can improve with another year in Frank Reich’s system and with Luck under center.The moves at wide receiver today create a projected WR room that includes T.Y. Hilton, Devin Funchess, Chester Rogers, Deon Cain, Marcus Johnson, Reece Fountain and likely Zach Pascal. At minimum, it removes pressure to feel forced into taking an early wide receiver prospect in the draft. Bill Parcells famously said, “You are what your record says you are.”After week 7, the Colts 2-5 record should actually be 2-4-1 is tied for 27th place in the league.So, are the Colts really one of the worst teams in the league? Because record isn’t the full story, the media churns out weekly power rankings which supposedly ranks teams by how good they are irrespective of record.Chris Blystone’s recent power rankings article shows that most pundits placed Indy right around 27th.So Adam Vinatieri Jersey Stitched
, either they all agree with Parcells or they are too lazy to actually analyze team play and just basically go by record. I’ll let you guess which is true.Personally, I feel the Colts are playing much better than their record and I have the data to back up that claim.ODDSAs of this writing, Sportsline.com has the Colts odds of winning the Superbowl at 100 to 1 . . . so, you’re saying there’s a chance. While I have no opinion on the predictive capability of Vegas odds, I can say for certain that there are only 19 teams with better odds listed. So, according to the cumulative knowledge of the betting community, the Colts are tied as the 20th best team. Hey, it’s better than 27th.POINT DIFFERENTIALSWins are obviously highly correlated to point differentials. For example, the team currently with the highest season long point differential is the Rams and surprise, they also have the best record. Normally, teams that have less than a 0.500 record, have negative point differentials Youth Anthony Castonzo Jersey
, but that isn’t true with the Colts. Through 7 weeks, Reich and company have scored 189 points, while giving up 185, which results in a +4 point differential. This suggests that the Colts record is artificially low. How low? Well, rank teams by point differential and the Colts come in at 18th. PYTHAGOREAN WINSFootball Outsiders performs a much math-ier transform of point differentials by calculating a Pythagorean Win Expectation, which estimates the number of wins a team “should have” given their cumulative points for and against. Statistically, the calculation does a pretty good job of estimating actual wins.According to their formula, the Colts are playing like a team with 3.6 wins and are on pace to garner 8.2 for the season. They also apply an adjustment to account for “garbage time” impacts and after including that, Adjusted Pythagorean Expectation has the Colts ranked 17th in expected wins.That was a lot of math just to improve point differentials by one spot. But I’ll take it.BLOWOUTSWhile I’m on the subject of point differentials, did you hear that the Colts went +32 over the Bills last week? Since the league went to a 16 game season in 1978, there have been 45 games decided by exactly 32 points. The winning teams from those games ended the season with an average of 9.9 wins. Of course, there is variance around that number but only 18% of those teams ended up with less than 8 wins. The point is that if you beat someone by 32 Anthony Castonzo Jersey Stitched
, then you probably aren’t one of the worst teams in the league.DRIVE SUCCESS RATEFor the 1 of you who read my articles, you know I am a big fan of Drive Success Rate. The Colts have a season long offensive DSR of 71.1% while the defense has given up a rate of 70.6%. The DSR differential is a relative measure of how well the the team has played overall and the Colts +0.5% ranks 17th in the league. DVOASo far, none of these measures have adjusted for opponent. Football Outsiders is famous for ranking teams by their DVOA metric, which includes an opponent adjustment. After Indy’s week 7 “running of the Bills”, the Colts improved their team DVOA and currently sit as the 14th best team in the league. CONCLUSIONSThere is no such thing as a “true” ranking method but by just about any method you pick, the Colts are much better than bottom dwellers. Add to that, the fact that the team is getting healthier and that there are a lot of winnable games coming up and I believe we will see a huge turn-around in record.Will it be enough to make the playoffs? I think it will be close. Close enough that half a game matters.